RET Review underestimates 20% renewables share

By Ric Brazzale

In simple terms, to determine the level of the mandated target we need to exclude renewable generation that does not create Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGCs) under the scheme, the so called ‘pre-existing’ renewables. — a number of hydro generators will exceed their baselines in some years and will be well under in other years.

Modelling by ACIL Allen for the Renewable Energy Target (RET) Review Panel has estimated the  Mandatory RET, to achieve a 20 per cent renewables market share by 2020 needs to be 25,500 GWh.

ACIL Allen, the consultants used by the RET Review Panel has significantly overestimated the level of generation for renewables projects built prior to 1997 when the RET was committed to and which are not eligible to earn certificates under the RET.

So, to correctly calculate the level of LGCs that need to be created in order to achieve a 20 per cent market share by 2020, we need to use 13,479 GWh as the estimate for pre-existing renewables generation.

NEM hydro generation where dispatch data is published by AEMO, accounts for nearly 91 per cent of total 1997 renewables baseline from all fuel types.

As renewable generation projects that have already been built or are under construction, will account for 14,500 GWh, this leaves at least another 13,824 GWh worth of projects to be built by 2020 to meet a 20 per cent target.

When we consider that level of hydro generation that does not create LGCs the average level of generation over the last eight years is 12,266 GWh (refer to last section of Table 2).

Read more here: Business Spectator


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